With the NCAA baseball tournament opening with regional action today, here are four thoughts and storylines to keep an eye on throughout the weekend.
Austin Regional is tougher than it appears to be
While many have dismissed the Austin Regional, hosted by No. 2 national seed Texas, as the easiest in the tournament field, I’m not convinced that is the case. Sure, the Longhorns appear to be on their way to the super regionals already, but that is because of Texas’ talent and dominance, not the competition it will face in the regionals.
That said, Texas is far from a super regional lock. The Horns showed their vulnerability against West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament, and registered more than five hits in a game just once during the conference tournament. Lack of hitting puts more pressure on a pitching staff that can hold its own, yet, like any pitching staff, works better when it does not have to pitch a shutout in order to achieve the win.
Fairfield, the No. 3 seed in the regional, heads to Austin as perhaps the likeliest Cinderella in the tournament, as the Stags went 37-3 on the year. Now, the fact that Fairfield was unable to play non-conference games dropped its strength of schedule like a rock, and brought up questions as to if the Stags even deserved a spot in the tournament.
But to open the season winning 27 straight, no matter who you’re playing against, is impressive. As Texas head coach David Pierce said after the Longhorns won 13 straight in mid-April, "I don't care if you're playing 'Our Lady of the Foul Line' — it doesn't matter," Pierce said. "To win 13 straight is tough to do."
Expect Fairfield to challenge, though it will be without team captain Mike Caruso, who suffered a broken jaw during batting practice this week. The catcher hit .414 this spring.
Arizona State is the No. 2 seed in the regional, and considering the fact that the Sun Devils played three regional hosts and three additional NCAA tournament teams this season, they should be well-prepared to take on Texas, as well as Fairfield and Southern, in Austin.
Louisiana Tech bounces back from tornado
Two years ago at this time, Louisiana Tech did not even have a stadium. Now, the Bulldogs will get set to host the Ruston Regional, which also features No. 2 seed NC State, No. 3 seed Alabama and No. 4 seed Rider.
On April 25, 2019, a EF3 tornado swept through Ruston, destroying everything in its path. Two days before, the Bulldogs had rolled to a 5-4 win over Little Rock behind a walk-off homer. It was the last game ever played at the old J.C Love Field at Pat Patterson Park. The facility was in shambles as athletic director Tommy McClelland met with the media a day after the storm, and stated, "It's devastating. It's a total rebuild for us."
With a new and improved stadium, following a significant period of time as “road warriors” the Bulldogs returned to campus and got off to a quick start early this season, rolling to wins over top-ranked Arkansas and No. 4 Ole Miss in non-conference play. Though they fell in the C-USA Championship game Sunday to Old Dominion, their mark of 22-8 in conference action, coupled with a 40-18 overall record, earned the Bulldogs the right to host a regional for the first time in program history.
On Thursday, it was announced that the Ruston Regional had been sold out.
Fort Worth Regional to feature homegrown talent + one team from the Pacific northwest
In a situation unique to the Fort Worth Regional, three teams from the Lone Star State will be represented, creating a phenomenal crowd and atmosphere. TCU, the host and Big 12 champion, is joined by Dallas Baptist, the Missouri Valley Conference Champ, and McNeese State, the victors of the Southland Conference. Oregon State enters the mix as the No. 2 seed in the regional.
TCU has looked unstoppable for much of the season, powered behind timely two-out hitting, and a consistent group of relievers. River Ridings headlines that group, as he made 22 appearances through the regular season and conference tourney, posting an eye-popping 0.54 ERA in 33.1 innings pitched. Also look for Phillip Sikes to step up, as the outfielder started all but one game for the Horned Frogs this season and is hitting .337.
Dallas Baptist, who has made six of its eight NCAA tournament appearances in a regional played in the state of Texas, always seems to challenge the higher seed, though the Patriots have never reached a super regional. In DBU’s last tournament appearance at the Lubbock Regional in 2019, the Patriots went 2-2, with their only losses coming to top seed Texas Tech. Perhaps they will break through and reach the second weekend of the tournament, time will tell.
Additionally, Oregon State has the potential to challenge, especially behind the pitching of Kevin Abel. The sophomore starter is second in the Pac-12 with 106 strikeouts on the year and has an arsenal of pitches, though he has struggled to get in the win column, with a 3-4 record.
Toughest regional is found in Knoxville
I feel fairly confident that Tennessee will advance onto the super regional, though I’m not sure that the Vols won’t suffer one loss, even playing at home. This regional does appear to be the nation’s toughest, with all four teams ranked in the Top 60 in RPI; No. 1 seed Tennessee (No. 5), No. 2 seed Duke (No. 20), No. 3 Liberty (No. 36), No. 4 Wright State (No. 24).
Duke comes into the weekend with momentum, having won its first ACC tournament title in 60 years, and is led by Joey Loperfido, the ACC tournament MVP who is hitting .363 on the year. The Blue Devils pitching was also top notch at the conference tournament, surrendering five runs total, all to teams who advanced to the NCAA tournament.
Liberty will open its tournament run against Duke on Friday at noon, with the Flames anchored by weekend starter Trevor DeLaite. Liberty is 13-1 in games the former Maine pitcher has started this season.
Wright State is powered by its bats, and has the potential to surprise some people, having led the nation in team batting average at .342 this season. Alec Sayre is the foundation of the lethal offense, having hit .397 this season, though expect Damon Dues to challenge the Tennessee pitching staff on Friday. He is coming off a 5-for-6 performance in the Horizon League Championship Game, where he hit for the cycle and tied the league championship record with 12 total bases in the game.
Tennessee enters as the favorite, both because of the Vols home field advantage and the consistency of their lineup. Second baseman Max Ferguson, despite hitting .262, has a knack for rising to the challenge in big moments. Against top-ranked Arkansas in the bottom of the ninth on May 15, Ferguson swatted a three-run walk off home run to earn the dramatic 8-7 win. Jake Rucker, a Collegiate Baseball All-American, is expected to carry the Vols’ offense throughout this regional, though Tennessee has plenty of depth at the plate.
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